north carolina changing demographics

I’m a demographic analyst at Carolina Demography, an applied demography group located within the Carolina Population Center at UNC-Chapel Hill.

These urban counties now contain more people born outside of North Carolina than people born within our state. Sixty percent of this growth is projected to occur in Mecklenburg (189,000) and Wake (143,000). As these industries develop, we’ll see growth in the indirect industries that support these businesses, as well as in the types of businesses that support new workers moving there, such as grocery stores and restaurants.Barring unforeseen changes in the natural environment, public policy, or economy, these are the trends we can expect to continue through 2040. Charlotte and its suburbs have seen similar growth. The remaining 90 percent of North Carolina counties accounted for just 30 percent of job growth in nearly a decade.Migration is likely keeping us young. The largest relative increases in working age population size are projected to occur in Hoke (46%), Mecklenburg (46%), and Brunswick (43%). (Of course, there are exceptions to these patterns: Some of our fastest-growing counties are retirement destinations, like Brunswick County, with high net migration rates of older adults. )With high and quick growth comes major headaches. But before we get into predictions about North Carolina in 2040, it’s important to talk about the last few decades, when North Carolina’s population shifted rapidly—but unevenly. In fact, just three counties accounted for more than half of North Carolina’s growth from 2010 to 2015: Wake, Mecklenburg, and Durham. Average work-commute times are increasing faster than the state average in our largest metro areas, as most workers travel solo in their cars. Counties with large population declines across North Carolina tend to have much older populations, as fewer adults choose to locate there or return after college.

In North Carolina, these estimates indicate emerging trends that we will continue to examine in the coming months. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.Sign Up For Our Daily Newsletter: Your North CarolinaCan We Trust Polls in 2020? The American Community Survey (ACS), conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, publishes detailed estimates of North Carolina's population each year, subdivided by a wide variety of characteristics—including their marital status . All Rights Reserved. What accounts for this imbalanced growth? They also attract younger adults from more rural counties, accelerating the population decline in rural counties. People tend to follow jobs, and job growth in North Carolina has been highly concentrated. In this episode of EdTalk, host Alex Granados talks with Rebecca Tippett, director of Carolina Demography at UNC-Chapel Hill’s Carolina Population Center. North Carolina's demographics are changing, so much so that about half the current population wasn't born here. North Carolina’s working age population (35-64) is projected to grow by nearly 550,000 individuals between 2015 and 2035, an increase of 14%.

Meanwhile, nearly half of North Carolina’s one hundred counties have declined in population since 2010. A UNC-CH report on North Carolina’s changing demographics shows a state tilting away from traditional Republican voters. People tend to follow jobs, and job growth in North Carolina has been highly concentrated. North Carolina's demographics are changing, so much so that about half the current population wasn't born here. Download it here. North Carolina’s population grew by 1.1% between July 1, 2016 and July 1, 2017, gaining nearly 117,000 new residents over the year.

That means I spend a lot of time thinking about how North Carolina’s population is changing and what that means in terms of housing, education, transportation, and our state’s economy.In other words, I’m constantly projecting how population changes will affect our state’s future.

These population changes aren’t happening in a vacuum. A changing electorate may upend Republican dominance in North Carolina.

• North Carolina: Using 2016 turnout and support levels as a baseline, white Democratic voters in North Carolina are primarily college-educated, comprising 30 percent of the Democratic coalition.73 If non-college-educated white voters shifted toward the Republican Party by five points, little would change in terms of who comprises the Democratic coalition. New estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau provide detail on how this growth and change occurred across the state. By 2035, more than a quarter of the population in many rural areas will be sixty-five or older.We’ll also see more jobs in the Triangle and Charlotte regions. Rural counties will continue to experience declines, as well as an overall “graying” of the population. There will be more people working in or near the Triangle, more people commuting into the Triangle, and more people needing houses to live in or near the Triangle. They discuss the changing demographics of North Carolina and how that may affect the state’s public schools. And those new residents tend to be more highly educated and live in more urban areas. Counties with the highest net migration rates tended to have a steady influx of young adults, as they attract young professionals, new families, college students, and military personnel.