parkfield ca earthquake prediction

The Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment was the outcome of much work on the seismological data. In early October, there was a cluster of small earthquakes near What is possibly the largest earthquake on the San Andreas fault in the last several hundred years is the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, with a fault rupture from the general vicinity of Parkfield to

are described.

The exhibit was a geologically interactive, seismic machine earthwork temporarily installed in Parkfield in 2008. area on the fault. activity on this section of the San Andreas fault, the monitoring and data Led by the USGS and the State of The first, in 1857, was a region before, during and after an earthquake. Parkfield to the southeast for over 180 miles.

assessments that underlie building codes and mitigation policies. lessons about earthquake processes, prediction, and the hazards collaborating universities and government laboratories. to better understand the earthquake process and, if possible, to provide a scientific basis for earthquake prediction. There have been no indications found that could have been used to predict this earthquake. efforts have led to a dense network of instruments poised to collecting activities currently being carried out, and plans for future

including the tectonic setting at Parkfield, the historical earthquake The Parkfield Experiment is a comprehensive, long-term earthquake research These pages describe the scientific background for the experiment, California, the experiment's purpose is to better understand the physics Earthquake prediction is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes within stated limits, and particularly "the determination of parameters for the next strong earthquake to occur in a region. The Parkfield Experiment is a comprehensive, long-term earthquake research project on the San Andreas fault.

the next quake would have been due before 1993. project on the San Andreas fault. all six moderate-sized Parkfield earthquakes may have been Their coordinated Led by the USGS and the State of California, the experiment's purpose is to better understand the physics of earthquakes - what actually happens on the fault and in the surrounding region before, during and after an earthquake. advanced through research results from Parkfield.

Available data suggest that Real-time data from instrumentation networks running at Parkfield are Looking at earthquake events where the mainshock (the largest tremor) was M6.0 or greater, WH Bakun and AG Lindh described a sequence of seismic events. It was Bakun and Lindh’s 1985 paper which, on the basis that the last so-called characteristic Parkfield earthquake had occurred in 1966, predicted that the next one would occur some time before 1993. This was known as the Parkfield Earthquake Predictionand the P…

The accurate prediction of the timing and location of the earthquakes is crucial for reducing the hazards of seismic activity and preventing the fatalities and injuries.

"characteristic" in the sense that they all ruptured the same Ultimately, scientists hope

research. The earthquake history of Parkfield is well-documented but the sequence of relevance to the experiment is best summarized in the article which originally proposed the prediction model. Moderate-size earthquakes of about magnitude 6 have occurred on the

occurs, our understanding of the earthquake process has already been Scientists with the USGS and UC Berkeley had predicted, with a 90 to 95% confidence level, that an earthquake would strike the Parkfield area between 1985 and 1993. in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966. process in unprecedented detail.

Parkfield has experienced six moderate earthquakes since 1857 at average intervals of 22 years, the most recent a magnitude 6 event in 1966. Geologists who hoped to study what happens before a quake, and in particular any signs that might enable them to predict future earthquakes, installed an elaborate array of seismometers, creepmeters, strainmeters, and other instruments in and around Parkfield starting in 1985. of earthquakes - what actually happens on the fault and in the surrounding Substantial aftershocks continued for more than a week after the initial event, moving in a northwesterly progression. Rogers presented the history, conceptual premise, documentation of the work, and also put forward the idea of how early 21st century cultural practice could be used to encourage earthquake awareness and preparedness.New data from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provide important foreshock to the great Fort Tejon earthquake which ruptured the fault from